November 03, 2004

The Morning After

Hey! Bush won! But the heaping wads of cash I wished for still havenít shown up. I bet you thought I was wishing for a Bush victory yesterday when I blew out the candles -- and you would lose. I was wishing for great wads of cash to be dropped on my doorstep since I was quite confident that Bush was already going to win. No use wasting a birthday wish on something that will already happen.

As of this morning, President Bush has 51.55568% of the popular vote and Senator Kerry has 48.44431%. I canít help but wonder that if the numbers were reversed Big Media would be rounding the larger number to 52% instead of truncating it to 51%. I predicted a 52% vote total to Bush. With rounding, which is normal in these instances, I declare that prediction a success.

Over at Ipse Dixit I also predicted that Bush would get 312 electoral votes, and that the GOP would pick up 3 Senate seats and 6 seats in the House. With respect to the electoral vote, the total now seems to be closer to 286. I was wrong about New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. With respect to the Senate, it looks like the GOP will pick up 6 seats (DeMint, Burr, Isakson, Martinez, Vitter, Thune ) while losing 2 seats (Obama, Salazar) for a net gain of 4. I expected Murkowski to lose. Unfortunately, with the rules of the Senate, not much will change. With respect to the House, it is still too early to tell, but I feel comfortable with my estimate of a GOP pickup of 6 seats. All told, this tells me that I was being fairly realistic in my outlook based upon my filters of all the news and polls.

Before 8:00 PM I thought that the exit polls were crap. Strangely enough, I didnít know about the exit poll predictions until about 7:00 PM. I had been out of the house and not on the Ďnet so I didnít know about Drudge or anyone else posting the bogus exit polls. But it does explain the early evening depression on Fox, except, of course, for Juan Williams, who got a lot quieter as the evening wore on. As I predicted then, the exit polls will become another Big Media scandal in the coming days.

And yet another prediction I made last week came true. Every ďheartlandĒ state went for President Bush.

Transnational Progressivismís victory party has been deferred, but the battle will rage on.

I predict blogosphere hits will drop precipitously in the coming weeks. But blogs are here to stay.

I saw Wonkette for the first time while flipping channels last night. She appear to be nothing more than a flippant poseur who wouldnít get the time of day from Big Media (or Big Blogosphere) if she looked like Helen Thomas and didnít talk about sex.

As a thought experiment, imagine how badly John Kerry would have lost without the 5% boost from Big Media that Evan Thomas suggested. Youíd be a fool to imagine that this Big Media bonus will now go away.

Megan McArdle says:

THINGS ARE LOOKING BAD FOR TOM DASCHLE IN SOUTH DAKOTA. I confess I don't understand the obsession that led to pouring $25 million into the state to defeat a rather moderate minority leader, but this will be a big scalp for the Republicans.

Megan is very smart, but maybe the lack of sleep was clouding her judgment on this one. Aside from the obvious advantage of taking down the leader of the other party, the number of truly contested Senate seats is small in every election, so if you can flip one, that justifies the expense.

And while Iím commenting on Instapundit guest contributors, there's also this from Ann Althouse:

Here in Madison, I'm surrounded by overwhelming numbers of people who voted against the President and must be horrified at the prospect of four more years. I was just saying yesterday afternoon, as I was reading the exit polls that so favored Kerry, that it might be better for the national psyche, at least, if Kerry won, that it would be much harder for Kerry supporters to tolerate more Bush than for Bush supporters to accept giving the other party a chance for a while. But, despite some lingering denial among Kerry supporters (including some MSM outlets), that is not to be. Those of us who are happy with the outcome would do well to resist gloating. There is a lot of pain out there, and perhaps setting an example of graceful winning can help inspire some graceful acceptance of loss.

Oh please. I do agree that we should be graceful winners, but people that are horrified by the thought of four more years of Bush need to grow up or seek some professional help. Frankly, I donít give a damn about their self esteem. I wouldnít have liked it if Kerry had won, but I wasnít promising to leave the country if he won. Whatever happened to the virtues of putting up the good fight and then accepting the outcome? The infantile behavior and underlying thought patterns of the Angry Left that drive them do not deserve kid gloves and sympathy. Iím happy about the outcome and Iím not gloating. Sure, there are some who positively revel in the schadenfreude today, but thatís nothing compared to what those of us who are happy today would have been subjected to had the result gone the other way. Oh, and I feel the same way about Europe.

Primary benefits of President Bushís reelection:

1. The malignant malevolence of the political malefactor Terry McAuliffe should be become a thing of the past. If I were a Republican, Iíd wish him to stay considering his track record. As it happens, I am not a Republican, so Iíd rather the adults retake control of the Democrat Party. My support of President Bush had a lot more to do with a concern over the election of John Kerry than any strong belief that George W. Bush is a great president. Having said that, President Bush is much better on the War on Terrorism than he is generally given credit for. The negativity surrounding the reportage of Iraq is just ridiculous. Events on the ground are much better than anyone expected before we went in Ė and thatís a fact. Maybe now the saner heads in the Democrat Party can stop wishing for bad things to happen just to make President Bush look bad. Maybe Mr. McAuliffe can open up an You're Doomed! consultancy with Bob Shrum.

2. Chief Justice Rehnquist can safely retire now and relax for his remaining years. The same is true of Justice Stevens and Justice OíConner.

3. The days are now numbered for the scum of Fallujah. Did anybody else see the live feed of our troops watching Fox News from Fallujah last night? Who knew we had troops who could sit and watch TV in Fallujah? Isn't Fallujah supposed to be a lawless encampment that we cannot enter?

4. North Korea and Iran (the remaining members of the Axis of Evil) just received their wake up call.

5. Maybe Andrew Sullivan will stop exhibiting the symptoms of bipolar punditry, with all its higher than high highs and lower than low lows. Andrew is bright, talented and perceptive, but his wild mood swings do not do him justice.

6. After his concession speech we may never have to hear Senator Kerry's monotone, sonorous platitudes again.

7. The silly, and I do mean silly, talk about dispensing with the electoral college will subside for a while. Anybody who thinks the electoral college is going away either hasn't read the U.S. Constitution or they didn't understand it when they did read it.

8. All the meaningless, nonsensical coincidences that are offered up as predictive correlations, if not causal agents, for presidential election results can be put to rest, e.g., the Washington Redskin's final home game result before the election.

9. Ron Reagan should retire from public life. Ron, trust me, your friends on the Left find your commentary as uninformed and your politics as juvenile as I do. Now that the warm glowing warming glow of having Ronald Reagan's son dis his political heirs has worn off, they'll be taking your microphone away because you are embarrassing even them.

10. Political polling has become almost hopelessly disreputable.

11. Sean Puffy P. Diddy Daddy Combs can go back to whatever he was doing before his Big Media hyped power grab to become the hip-hop political power broker. So, with the absence of the youth vote, how many people died Diddy Daddy?

And now, back to life...

DOWNDATE: I added a couple more benefits that slipped my mind earlier.

Posted by Charles Austin at November 3, 2004 11:09 AM

At the end of the night, Juan Williams was just being a real dick, especially his obsession over the bad exit polling data.

One nice thing about these very late sessions is that it does reveal the character, knowledge and actual skill of these talking heads.

Posted by: fad at 11:53 AM

It was interesting to watch all the talking head's filters falter as they became tired.

Posted by: charles austin at 12:10 PM

Excellent wrap-up, Charles. I am hoping the Democrats are the ones who do a little waking up and a little growing up. In addition to South Dakotans ridding the Senate of Daschle, I am also hopeful the House Democrats will see fit to demote Pelosi to a spot more suited to her.

Posted by: Terry Oglesby at 01:24 PM

Superb wrap-up, chief.

Posted by: Scott Chaffin at 01:30 PM

You're too pesimistic about the Senate. We've got 4 Red State Democrat Senators up for re-election in 2006, and several more first timers in mildly Blue states. Think they want to get Daschled in 2006? :-)

I predict the Dems will get a LOT more selective about fillibusters.

As for Megan, she's been hanging out in Blue areas too long if she think's Daschle is a "moderate". Moderates don't do fundraising for Emily's List.

Posted by: Greg D at 10:33 PM

The networks' rounding is correct, your percentages are wrong. Because your percentages add to 99.9999, it is obvious that you failed to include the votes for other candidates in the vote total before dividing.

This morning I got:
Bush - 59,108,395 - 51.074315%
Kerry - 55,554,114 - 48.003136%
Others - 671,796 - 0.580485%
Nader - 395,871 - 0.342064%
TOTAL - 115,730,176 - 100.000000%

The Bush and Kerry percentages appropriately round to 51% and 48%, respectively.

Posted by: Lynxx Pherrett at 06:31 AM

Now that the Redskins indicator has fallen by the wayside somebody is bound to discover another sport's streak purporting to predict the outcome of the presidential election.

Posted by: Lawrence at 10:47 AM

Has Alan Keyes conceded yet, or is he demanding a recount?

Posted by: Gary at 10:58 PM