RealClear Politics offers perhaps the most comprehensive and hence, IMHO, the fairest summary of where the election stands. As of this morning, RealClear Politics' electoral count is:
Bush: 232
Kerry: 190
I assume Bush will also get one electoral vote from Maine which gives him 233 electoral votes by this count, while reducing Kerry to 189. The following states are listed as tossups, with their electoral votes in parenthesis:
Florida (27)
Iowa (7)
Michigan (17)
Minnesota (10)
New Hampshire (4)
Ohio (20)
Pennsylvania (21)
Wisconsin (10)
If Bush wins Florida, which is looking increasingly likely, he will have 260 electoral votes and will only need 10 more electoral votes -- actually, only 9 since he would win if the election is thrown to the House of Representatives. Of the remaining 7 states in play, any one of Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin gives Bush the election. So much for Bush having to win Ohio or Pennsylvania to prevail. Bush can also win by taking only Iowa and New Hampshire. Therefore, the only way Kerry can win is to have almost everything break in his direction the last two days. I consider that unlikely given that in the changes tracked at RealClear Politics over the last two weeks, 9 have broken for Bush while only 5 have broken for Kerry:
10/31: MI - Leaning Kerry >> Toss Up (Bush 232 - Kerry 190)
10/28: NM - Toss Up >> Leaning Bush (Bush 232 - Kerry 207)
10/28: NC - Leaning Bush >> Solid Bush (Bush 227 - Kerry 207)
10/28: IA - Leaning Bush >> Toss Up (Bush 227 - Kerry 207)
10/28: PA - Leaning Kerry >> Toss Up (Bush 234 - Kerry 207)
10/26: MI - Toss Up >> Leaning Kerry (Bush 234 - Kerry 228)
10/23: HI - Solid Kerry >> Leaning Kerry (Bush 234 - Kerry 211)
10/22: PA - Toss Up >> Leaning Kerry (Bush 234 - Kerry 211)
10/22: ME/1 - Toss Up >> Leaning Kerry (Bush 234 - Kerry 190)
10/22: IA - Toss Up >> Leaning Bush (Bush 234 - Kerry 189)
10/21: MI - Leaning Kerry >> Toss Up (Bush 227 - Kerry 189)
10/20: NH - Leaning Kerry >> Toss Up (Bush 227 - Kerry 206)
10/19: MN - Leaning Kerry >> Toss Up (Bush 227 - Kerry 210)
10/18: FL - Leaning Bush >> Toss Up (Bush 227 - Kerry 220)
There are still 128 different ways for the other 7 states to break. If Bush wins Florida, only 3 of those 128 combinations favor Kerry (Kerry winning all the states, Bush winning only Iowa, or Bush winning only New Hampshire), whereas if Kerry wins Florida, 48 combinations still give Bush the 46 electoral votes he needs to win. It is obviously less likely that Bush will win if he loses Florida, but not ridiculously so, while Bush winning Florida pushes his chances up over 97%, assuming each of the other 7 states really are toss-ups.
While this is cause for confidence, it must not generate complacency. See you, in spirit, at the polls on Tuesday.